|Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.|
|Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.|
|Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.|
High Risk Events
|Dry-Relative Humidity less than 15% across Southeast Alaska and less than 10% elsewhere.|
|Windy-Widespread sustained North through east winds greater than 25 mph over Southeast Alaska and widespread sustained winds greater than 30 mph elsewhere across the state.|
|Lightning- Scattered dry strikes or widespread mostly dry strikes.|
|Recreation-High recreation or other human activity.|
- Stony River
Alaska Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential
Issued: Friday, Sep 6, 2013 Parameters:
|Predictive Service Area||
|AK00 - North Slope|
|AK01E - Tanana Valley-East|
|AK01W - Tanana Valley-West|
|AK02 - Upper Yukon Valley|
|AK03N - Tanana Zone-North|
|AK03S - Tanana Zone-South|
|AK04 - Koyukuk/Upper Kobuk|
|AK05 - Middle Yukon|
|AK06 - Seward Peninsula|
|AK07 - Lower Yukon|
|AK08 - Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta|
|AK09 - Kuskokwim Valley|
|AK10 - Bristol Bay and AK Pen|
|AK11 - Susitna Valley|
|AK12 - Copper River Basin|
|AK13 - Matanuska Vly/Anchorage|
|AK14 - Kenai Peninsula|
|AK15 - Northern Panhandle|
|AK16 - Central Panhandle|
|AK17 - Southern Panhandle|
|AK18 - Kodiak|
The long wave trough remains entrenched over the west coast of Alaska and eastern Bering Sea into next week. This will continue to bring waves of moisture across most of the state, and flow that varies from south to southwest.
Strong southerly flow will develop againtoday to bring strong southeast winds through the Alaska Range. Winds will increase to gust to 50 mph developing this afternoon and lasting into Saturday. Winds will decrease quickly Saturday evening. It is expected that these Chinook winds will keep the central to eastern Interior fairly dry south of the Yukon but with a brief chance of showers after the winds decrease.
The overall pattern shifts to light southerly flow aloft next week with occasional weak and short lived ridging followed by anouther bout of showers.
Most indices show low to moderate fire potential across the state. It is unlikely that a fire would ignite and show sustained burning at this time of the year.
Drought Codes (DCs) remain high in the central and eastern Interior, But these are overlain by very low Duff Moisture Codes (DMCs) in general. The DCs, as the lowest levels of the organic matter typically have a long response time, and often don't recover until spring snowmelt. It is likely we will put these high DCs to bed for winter this way, and will have to wait and see if a normal snowfall year occurs to bring those numbers back down for spring.
Resources Mississippi is the only staffed fire in Alaska and is expected to demobe this weekend. There are enough resources available. Alaska is at PL1.
Mississippi is the only staffed fire in Alaska and is expected to demobe this weekend. There are enough resources available. Alaska is at PL1.
Forecasters: Alden 9/6/2013 1307 MDT