GACC Map

Legend

Fuel Dryness


Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events


Wind
Hot and Dry
Lightning

Missing Stations

  • Notchko
  • Westside
  • Whitmore
  • Stampede

California - North Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Tuesday, Sep 30, 2014 Parameters:


Predictive Service Area Mon
Sep 29
Tue
Sep 30
Wed
Oct 1
Thu
Oct 2
Fri
Oct 3
Sat
Oct 4
Sun
Oct 5
Mon
Oct 6
NC01 - North Coast
NC02 - Mid Coast
NC03A - Bay Area-Marine
NC03B - Diablo/Santa Cruz Mtns
NC04 - Northwestern Mtns
NC05 - Sacramento Valley
NC06 - Northeast CA
NC07 - Northern Sierra
NC08 - East Side

Weather

*** Updated Due To Technical/Software Issues ***


*** Moderate to Strong NE/Offshore Winds Late Today into Wednesday ***

 

A cold front passed across the region yesterday. Behind this front, winds have begun shifting to a more northerly direction aloft. Pacific High Pressure will build behind this front later today and enhance the northerly wind flow, along with much warmer/drier conditions.  Northerly winds should begin across the Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills today, spreading across the Sierra and Coastal Mtns thru the Bay Area tonight. Widespread winds of 15-30 mph are expected, along with localized gusts over 40 mph in the most wind prone areas. Humidity will begin to sharply lower late today and remain below 40% in many areas tonight. If it weren't for the recent rains, these winds and RH levels would likely require a "High Risk" issuance, but we will hold off, due to current fuel moisture levels.


Pacific High Pressure remains over the region thru the weekend, but wind speeds will diminish. However, there will still be occasional light offshore flow which will continue to rapidly dry fuels. Temperatures by later this week should rise to 8-12 degrees above normal.

 

 

Fuels/Fire Potential

No :High Risk" designations are planned st this time due to fuel moisture levels being closer to mid November normals. However, for areas west of the Sierra/Cascade Crest, the drying response to several days of offshore flow should be significant, with some PSA's even reaching the "Very Dry" level later in the 7-Day period. Even though fuel dryness levels should mitigate large fire potential in most areas, any local areas that received much lighter rainfall amounts last week could see localized fire starts and with that, rapid rates of spread due to increasing N-E winds late tonight and Wednesday.

Despite recent rain, nearly all of North Ops remains in Extreme to Exceptional drought: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA

Resources

North OPS:  Preparedness Level 2               

National:      Preparedness Level 1

MACS Mode 2

 

For more information about this product, please go to:  http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/Fire%20Potential%20Documentation.htm

And for more information on the national product please go to:

http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/explanation_of_Sig_7-Day_Fire_Pot_product.doc

 

Forecasters: Basil - Updated 9/30/2014 1616 MDT