California - North Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential
Issued: Sunday, Jul 5, 2015 Parameters:
|Predictive Service Area||
|NC01 - North Coast|
|NC02 - Mid Coast|
|NC03A - Bay Area-Marine|
|NC03B - Diablo/Santa Cruz Mtns|
|NC04 - Northwestern Mtns|
|NC05 - Sacramento Valley|
|NC06 - Northeast CA|
|NC07 - Northern Sierra|
|NC08 - East Side|
*** Daily mountain area lightning expected all week, but mostly wet ***
Low pressure parked off shore and high pressure over the Great Basin will remain in place through the week with moisture lingering over the region. This will lead to daily, mostly mountain and wet thunderstorms in North Ops, including potential for overnight thunderstorms. Some areas may also have some showers as well. The low will slowly move toward the coast and eventually move inland through central California Thursday and Friday or so. The air mass over North Ops late this week should become relatively moist and there may be some more showers and overall cloudiness in addition to thunderstorms. The Sacramento Valley, Bay Area and much of the Mid Coast PSA's will be the driest areas overall this week.
Temperatures will be above seasonal normals for inland areas today then leveling off at pretty much near normal or even a little below that for the time of year. Warmer inland valleys will mostly be in the mid and upper 90s. Winds will be seasonably light and mostly southerly to westerly for the 7 day period
Very dry dead and cured fuels of all size classes are in place across North Ops. A few areas have increasing live fuel moisture yet, but overall live fuels appear to be steady or dropping. Although the thunderstorms are expected to be mostly wet for the next week, new start and holdover potential will definitely continue, and new starts that get going in areas outside the rainfall of thunderstorms are likely to burn actively. IA resources are likely to continue to be occupied. The moister air mass and continuation of wet thunderstorms or even showers this week (especially late in the week) will likely lower Significant Fire Potential across all of North Ops eventually. For the Bay Area Mountains and the Sacramento Valley, conditions will remain quite dry, just somewhat less so.
Severe to exceptional longer-term drought continues across much of the region. The latest drought monitor map can be found at: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/.
North OPS: Preparedness Level 2
National: Preparedness Level 3
MACS Mode 2
For more information about this product, please go to: http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/Fire%20Potential%20Documentation.htm
And for more information on the national product please go to:
Forecasters: BB 7/5/2015 0938 MDT