|Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.|
|Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.|
|Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.|
High Risk Events
|Hot and Dry|
California - North Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential
Issued: Wednesday, Aug 27, 2014 Parameters:
|Predictive Service Area||
|NC01 - North Coast|
|NC02 - Mid Coast|
|NC03A - Bay Area-Marine|
|NC03B - Diablo/Santa Cruz Mtns|
|NC04 - Northwestern Mtns|
|NC05 - Sacramento Valley|
|NC06 - Northeast CA|
|NC07 - Northern Sierra|
|NC08 - East Side|
High pressure will be over California today and Thursday, but will already be weakening over North Ops Thursday afternoon. Today and Thursday will be the warmest days of the 7 day period with the warmest inland valleys right around 100. Friday the southern edge of a low pressure trough along the West Coast from the Queen Charlottes to North Ops will arrive. This system will bring cooler temperatures (warmest areas in lower 90s) and some gusty westerly winds with it. The strongest winds are expected Friday and Saturday afternoons with areas of sustained westerly winds 8-18 mph and gusts mostly 25-30 mph.
Behind the trough Sunday through early next week, a dry NW flow will be over North Ops. This will bring a small warming trend with it. Saturday through Monday nights north winds will occur, strongest Sunday night. This will lead to areas with much lower overnight RH recovery (25-40%) and low daytime RH (15% or less) fairly widespread.
There are indications that a much cooler trough will arrive over the region the middle of next week. Higher RH and cooler temperatures will become likely if this weather pattern develops.
Stable conditions for the next few days are likely to continue poor air quality conditions near the ongoing KNF fires. The marine layer will linger along the coast at times, but may retreat off shore for a bit in some areas under the northerly flow expected over the weekend.
Fuels in most areas will most likely show some drying by the end of the 7 day period as the northerly flow by the end of the weekend reduces daily humidity, especially for the mid and higher elevations. Drainage bottoms and some mountain valleys may have somewhat higher RH and cooler overnight temps with better RH recovery. Overall, however, not much change is expected for the next week in spite of the daily variations. Any lingering holdover fires will have will have ample opportunity to emerge during the next 7 days.
The very dry conditions are a result of our record level drought conditions. Most of North Ops remains in Extreme to Exceptional drought: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA
North OPS: Preparedness Level 3
National: Preparedness Level 2
MACS Mode 2
For more information about this product, please go to: http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/Fire%20Potential%20Documentation.htm
And for more information on the national product please go to:
Forecasters: BB 8/27/2014 0930 MDT