GACC Map

Legend

Fuel Dryness


Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events


Wind
Hot and Dry
Lightning

Missing Stations

  • Eel River Camp
  • Notchko
  • Westside
  • Whitmore
  • Stampede

California - North Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Tuesday, Jan 27, 2015 Parameters:


Predictive Service Area Mon
Jan 26
Tue
Jan 27
Wed
Jan 28
Thu
Jan 29
Fri
Jan 30
Sat
Jan 31
Sun
Feb 1
Mon
Feb 2
NC01 - North Coast
NC02 - Mid Coast
NC03A - Bay Area-Marine
NC03B - Diablo/Santa Cruz Mtns
NC04 - Northwestern Mtns
NC05 - Sacramento Valley
NC06 - Northeast CA
NC07 - Northern Sierra
NC08 - East Side

Weather

A somewhat moist low pressure system is moving north over California today with patchy areas of light rain. As the low progresses through the region, most of any rain that falls will probably be in the central and eastern areas of North Ops. Some cloudiness and moisture will linger over the region Wednesday as another weak trough moves ashore, but only isolated light showers might occur with that system. High pressure off shore Thursday will begin strengthening and moving toward the coast. The high will spread inland over the weekend, returning very unseasonably warm, dry weather to the region for a few days. Sunday the high pressure ridge is likely to weaken considerably, and a weak weather system may move ashore in the far NW. Next Monday that same system may spread cloudiness and light precipitation further inland and southward.

 

Winds will generaly be rather light through Thursday. Beginning later Thursday, N to E winds will develop as the high pressure strengthens. Those winds will be of light to moderately strong speeds Friday into Saturday. Some windy areas will have rather poor overnight RH recovery and low daytime RH those days. Rather light westerly winds are expected Sunday through next Tuesday.

 

Afternoon high temperatures in many areas will be about 10 degrees on average above seasonal normals for most of the next 7 days. Today is likely to be the coolest day of the next 7. Areas of overnight valley fog will remain possible as well when and where there isn't much wind.

Fuels/Fire Potential

The higher RH expected for a few days will slow the drying of fine dead/dormant brush fuels, but the return of the high pressure ridge for the weekend will continue the drying trend once again. Poor overnight RH recovery in some areas with the N  to E winds will also assist with this. 1000 hr fuels are on a slow downward trend and are notably below seasonal normals. Snow pack will continue to be very low to non-existent as well for the near future. New, green grass growth in the lower elevations and overnight valley fog are a couple of things holding Significant Fire Potential down in many lower elevation areas except for the Bay Area where little precipitation has fallen.

Drought conditions will continue for some time to all appearances. The latest drought monitor map can be found at http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/.

Resources

North OPS:  Preparedness Level 1               

National:      Preparedness Level 1

MACS Mode 1

 

For more information about this product, please go to:  http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/Fire%20Potential%20Documentation.htm

And for more information on the national product please go to:

http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/explanation_of_Sig_7-Day_Fire_Pot_product.doc

 

Forecasters: BB 1/27/2015 0949 MST