|Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.|
|Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.|
|Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.|
High Risk Events
|Hot and Dry|
- Eel River Camp
California - North Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential
Issued: Tuesday, Jan 27, 2015 Parameters:
|Predictive Service Area||
|NC01 - North Coast|
|NC02 - Mid Coast|
|NC03A - Bay Area-Marine|
|NC03B - Diablo/Santa Cruz Mtns|
|NC04 - Northwestern Mtns|
|NC05 - Sacramento Valley|
|NC06 - Northeast CA|
|NC07 - Northern Sierra|
|NC08 - East Side|
A somewhat moist low pressure system is moving north over California today with patchy areas of light rain. As the low progresses through the region, most of any rain that falls will probably be in the central and eastern areas of North Ops. Some cloudiness and moisture will linger over the region Wednesday as another weak trough moves ashore, but only isolated light showers might occur with that system. High pressure off shore Thursday will begin strengthening and moving toward the coast. The high will spread inland over the weekend, returning very unseasonably warm, dry weather to the region for a few days. Sunday the high pressure ridge is likely to weaken considerably, and a weak weather system may move ashore in the far NW. Next Monday that same system may spread cloudiness and light precipitation further inland and southward.
Winds will generaly be rather light through Thursday. Beginning later Thursday, N to E winds will develop as the high pressure strengthens. Those winds will be of light to moderately strong speeds Friday into Saturday. Some windy areas will have rather poor overnight RH recovery and low daytime RH those days. Rather light westerly winds are expected Sunday through next Tuesday.
Afternoon high temperatures in many areas will be about 10 degrees on average above seasonal normals for most of the next 7 days. Today is likely to be the coolest day of the next 7. Areas of overnight valley fog will remain possible as well when and where there isn't much wind.
The higher RH expected for a few days will slow the drying of fine dead/dormant brush fuels, but the return of the high pressure ridge for the weekend will continue the drying trend once again. Poor overnight RH recovery in some areas with the N to E winds will also assist with this. 1000 hr fuels are on a slow downward trend and are notably below seasonal normals. Snow pack will continue to be very low to non-existent as well for the near future. New, green grass growth in the lower elevations and overnight valley fog are a couple of things holding Significant Fire Potential down in many lower elevation areas except for the Bay Area where little precipitation has fallen.
Drought conditions will continue for some time to all appearances. The latest drought monitor map can be found at http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/.
North OPS: Preparedness Level 1
National: Preparedness Level 1
MACS Mode 1
For more information about this product, please go to: http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/Fire%20Potential%20Documentation.htm
And for more information on the national product please go to:
Forecasters: BB 1/27/2015 0949 MST