California - North Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential
Issued: Monday, May 25, 2015 Parameters:
|Predictive Service Area||
|NC01 - North Coast|
|NC02 - Mid Coast|
|NC03A - Bay Area-Marine|
|NC03B - Diablo/Santa Cruz Mtns|
|NC04 - Northwestern Mtns|
|NC05 - Sacramento Valley|
|NC06 - Northeast CA|
|NC07 - Northern Sierra|
|NC08 - East Side|
The large-scale low pressure trough remains over the Western U.S. A smaller-scale low moving into the Pacific NW today will cause an increase showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of the North Ops region today and tonight, especially in the north. Lower elevations will also see a slight chance of rain. The low will move slowly to the SE, allowing a repeat of the afternoon and evening mountain showes and thunderstorms on Tuesday. The low will move off to the east late Wednesday. Only isolated showers or thunderstorms are expected from the Cascade-Sierra crest east on Wednesday.
A high pressure ridge will strengthen over the West Coast beginning Thursday and produce a more rapid warming and drying trend into next weekend. There may still be isolated showers or thunderstorms over the highest peaks Thur-Sat. A Pacific low approaching the Pacific NW on Sunday will produce increasing S to SW winds, with a chance of showers in far NW CA. The total rainfall expected through Day 7 will be around 0.25-0.75 inches in the mountains and a trace to 0.25 inches elsewhere.
PSAs in the south and west and at lower elevations have moved into the low end of the DRY category already as they have received less rainfall over the past few weeks. Other areas will also gradually move toward the DRY category over the next few weeks as weather systems gradually become weaker, farther apart, and produce less rainfall.
Severe to exceptional longer-term drought continues across much of the region. The latest drought monitor map can be found at: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/.
North OPS: Preparedness Level 2
National: Preparedness Level 1
MACS Mode 1
For more information about this product, please go to: http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/Fire%20Potential%20Documentation.htm
And for more information on the national product please go to:
Forecasters: Leach 5/25/2015 0948 MDT