|Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.|
|Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.|
|Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.|
High Risk Events
|Hot and Dry|
California - North Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential
Issued: Friday, Jul 17, 2015 Parameters:
|Predictive Service Area||
|NC01 - North Coast|
|NC02 - Mid Coast|
|NC03A - Bay Area-Marine|
|NC03B - Diablo/Santa Cruz Mtns|
|NC04 - Northwestern Mtns|
|NC05 - Sacramento Valley|
|NC06 - Northeast CA|
|NC07 - Northern Sierra|
|NC08 - East Side|
Strong high pressure in the Eastern Pacific is producing warm and dry conditions and a light northerly flow aloft across the North Ops region. Afternoon temperatures will be 4-7 degrees above normal with RH dropping to 12-17% in inland areas today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Central Sierra may reach as far north as the Lake Tahoe region this afternoon. Coastal areas will have marine layer/sea breeze conditions.
A front dropping in from the north later today will bring increasing SW to NW winds and isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to northern NV and NE CA late this afternoon. The showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight, mainly in eastern areas. Showers and thunderstorms are possible over the higher terrain of the entire North Ops region as the front sits over the region Saturday and Sunday.
Also on Sunday moisture from Hurricane Dolores will advance northward nearly to the southern end of the North Ops region. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the Bay Area and Lake Tahoe area Sunday and Monday. Westerly winds in advance of a Pacific low pressure trough dropping into the area from the north on Tuesday will push the moist unstable air from Dolores off to the east. This trough will produce mild and locally breezy conditions late into the week, with afternoon cumulus buildups over the higher terrain through Day 7.
Fuels have been in a drying trend since the wet weather that ended earlier this week. However, the front expected to bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late today through Sunday will bring a pause to the drying trend, especially in the mountains. At this time moisture from Hurricane Dolores is expected to remain south of the North Ops region, leading to little to no precipitation for the region next week.
Severe to exceptional longer-term drought continues across much of the region. The latest drought monitor map can be found at: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/.
North OPS: Preparedness Level 2
National: Preparedness Level 3
MACS Mode 2
For more information about this product, please go to: http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/Fire%20Potential%20Documentation.htm
And for more information on the national product please go to:
Forecasters: Leach 7/17/2015 0942 MDT