GACC Map

Legend

Fuel Dryness


Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events


Wind
Hot and Dry
Lightning

Missing Stations

  • Yurok
  • Whitmore Califo

California - North Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Tuesday, Apr 22, 2014 Parameters:


Predictive Service Area Mon
Apr 21
Tue
Apr 22
Wed
Apr 23
Thu
Apr 24
Fri
Apr 25
Sat
Apr 26
Sun
Apr 27
Mon
Apr 28
NC01 - North Coast
NC02 - Mid Coast
NC03A - Bay Area-Marine
NC03B - Diablo/Santa Cruz Mtns
NC04 - Northwestern Mtns
NC05 - Sacramento Valley
NC06 - Northeast CA
NC07 - Northern Sierra
NC08 - East Side

Weather

A series of low pressure systems and fronts will continue the wet unsettled weather pattern throughout the North Ops region over the next 7 days.  The first wave moves through last night with only spotty light rain, but showers and thunderstorms are possible later today, especially over the higher terrain in the north.

The next system will stall near the North Coast late Wednesday into early Thursday, then sweep through the North Ops region Thursday night and Friday.  A third system will move through late Saturday through Monday.

Snow levels will lower to around 3000-4000 ft in the north and 5000 ft in the south with the current system and the Thursday-Friday system, then rise to 5000 ft in the north and 6000 ft in the south with the Saturday-Monday system.

The total rainfall equivalent over the next week will be 1.50-3 inches in NW CA, 0.75-1.50 inches over the higher terrain elsewhere, and 0.25-1.00 inches at lower elevations and east of the Cascade-Sierra crest.

Fuels/Fire Potential

This week's weather pattern has brought dryness levels back into the MOIST category in all areas.

Annual grasses are in early stages of curing in some of the drier, and/or poorer soil areas at lower elevations, especially farther south and where there's been drier conditions. Snowpack remains at historical lows for April, exposing fuels at mid to higher elevations to the elements significantly earlier than average dates. Although this week's precipitation ought to bring some snow to the high country, little addition to the snow pack is likely.

Most of Northern California remains in Severe to Extreme longer-term drought. For the latest drought map see:  http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA

Resources

North OPS:  Preparedness Level 1                 

National:      Preparedness Level 1

MACS Mode 2

 

For more information about this product, please go to:  http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/Fire%20Potential%20Documentation.htm

And for more information on the national product please go to:

http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/explanation_of_Sig_7-Day_Fire_Pot_product.doc

 

Forecasters: Leach 4/22/2014 0944 MDT