GACC Map

Legend

Fuel Dryness


Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events


Wind
Hot and Dry
Lightning

Missing Stations

  • Notchko
  • Westside
  • Whitmore
  • Stampede

California - North Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Thursday, Jul 31, 2014 Parameters:


Predictive Service Area Wed
Jul 30
Thu
Jul 31
Fri
Aug 1
Sat
Aug 2
Sun
Aug 3
Mon
Aug 4
Tue
Aug 5
Wed
Aug 6
NC01 - North Coast
NC02 - Mid Coast
NC03A - Bay Area-Marine
NC03B - Diablo/Santa Cruz Mtns
NC04 - Northwestern Mtns
NC05 - Sacramento Valley
NC06 - Northeast CA
NC07 - Northern Sierra
NC08 - East Side

Weather

*** Thunderstorms again today in the north and east, then decreasing to just a chance in the NW Mtns area for Friday through the weekend ***

*** For the Cascade/Sierra eastward, generally drier and more stable  Friday - Sunday, but also with moderate SW breezes in p.m. hours ***

Today will be another active, mostly wet, thunderstorm day in northern CA, with the bulk of the activity staying north and east of a line from Happy Camp to Dunsmuir to Camino.  Overall strike counts today are forecast to total 45-75% of the 1800+ NOPS strikes received Wednesday.  Starting late tonight, a drier airmass and SW flow aloft will govern a larger share of the Area, reducing chances of eastern area lightning greatly for Friday  through Sunday. A pair of weak Pacific disturbances off our north coast will keep a chance of isolated p.m. thunderstorms in and near the Northerwestern Mtns PSA over the Friday -Sunday period. 

After light winds this morning, general winds will be mainly South to WSW 5-13 mph, with the strongest winds being localized- those due to gusty thunderstorm downdrafting.  A concern is moderate SW gradient winds for Friday to Monday afternoons, which will likely help find any lightning 'sleeper fires'.  The airmass will remain quite warm, with daily max temperatures near to several degrees above early Aug. normals.  Humidity patterns have been locally moderated so far this week,in the monsoon-origin airmass, but will start lowering some again Friday, with greater chances of single-digtit minimums.  The coastal marine layer will persist, and currently has tops around 1400 feet MSL in and near the Bay Area. 

Fuels/Fire Potential

By the end of today's thunderstorms Northeast CA and the Eastside PSAs will have enough area with temporarily wetter fuels to have a day of Dry rather than Very Dry.  The High Risk designations for today are as much a result of resource drawdown as the lightning activity itself... i.e. the cumulative effects of light to moderately heavy lightning activity over the 3 days.  There are currently quite a few small fires, and with the potential of more today, and the resources already  stretched thin, the risk of a few larger fires goes up.  Sleepers in eastern areas (drying and breezier) areas are a possibilty for the Fri-weekend period.  

Most of North Ops is in Extreme to Exceptional drought: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA

Resources

North OPS:  Preparedness Level 3                 

National:      Preparedness Level 3

MACS Mode 2

 

For more information about this product, please go to:  http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/Fire%20Potential%20Documentation.htm

And for more information on the national product please go to:

http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/explanation_of_Sig_7-Day_Fire_Pot_product.doc

 

Forecasters: J. Snook 7/31/2014 0945 MDT