California - North Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential
Issued: Wednesday, Apr 1, 2015 Parameters:
|Predictive Service Area||
|NC01 - North Coast|
|NC02 - Mid Coast|
|NC03A - Bay Area-Marine|
|NC03B - Diablo/Santa Cruz Mtns|
|NC04 - Northwestern Mtns|
|NC05 - Sacramento Valley|
|NC06 - Northeast CA|
|NC07 - Northern Sierra|
|NC08 - East Side|
The last part of the low pressure trough that remains over the West Coast will pass over the North Ops area this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers are expected in the mountains, and there is a slight chance that some of these will move over lower elevations. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon. Rainfall totals will be light - up to a quarter of an inch in far NW CA and a trace to 0.10 inches elsewhere. Snow levels are near 4000 ft.
High pressure will move overhead Thursday and produce a drying and warming trend through Friday. N-NE/Offshore winds will enhance these conditions and produce poor overnight RH recovery from the western Sierra slopes to the coast. The strongest winds will reach 25-30 mph Thursday morning.
On Saturday the next Pacific front will move onshore with scattered light showers. Winds and clouds will increase across the North Ops area Friday night ahead of the front. Rain chances will spread to the entire North Ops area Saturday night and continue on Easter Sunday. Another wave of precipitation will move in on Monday and the final wave of this system will move in on Tuesday. Rainfall totals with this system will reach 2-4 inches in the mountains and a half inch to 2 inches elsewhere. Snow levels with this system will drop to 3000 ft in the north and 4500 ft in the south.
Dead and dormant fuels are fairly dry, but live fuels at lower elevations are entering into their greenup phase. Grasses in most areas at lower elevations have passed the maximum live fuel moisture and are starting to turn, but they still have a ways to go. The dry and warm weather Thursday and Friday will push a few PSAs into the DRY category, but the wet weather expected to begin Sunday will push all PSAs into the MOIST category.
Snowpack below 6500-7000 feet elevation is at or near record low levels.
Significant drought conditions continue across the region. The latest drought monitor map can be found at: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/.
North OPS: Preparedness Level 1
National: Preparedness Level 1
MACS Mode 1
For more information about this product, please go to: http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/Fire%20Potential%20Documentation.htm
And for more information on the national product please go to:
Forecasters: Leach 4/1/2015 0936 MDT