|Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.|
|Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.|
|Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.|
High Risk Events
|Hot and Dry|
California - North Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential
Issued: Friday, Apr 24, 2015 Parameters:
|Predictive Service Area||
|NC01 - North Coast|
|NC02 - Mid Coast|
|NC03A - Bay Area-Marine|
|NC03B - Diablo/Santa Cruz Mtns|
|NC04 - Northwestern Mtns|
|NC05 - Sacramento Valley|
|NC06 - Northeast CA|
|NC07 - Northern Sierra|
|NC08 - East Side|
Cooler and more moist conditions expected today into the weekend as an unusually strong late season storm moves onshore across the Pacific NW and Nrn CA. Clouds will increase today with temperatures about 10 deg cooler than yesterday. Gusty westerly winds today with the approaching front especially across higher terrain with gusts over 35 mph possible. Humidity will be rising however.
An area of long duration, light-moderate rain moves onshore late today across NW CA and spreads across the entire region later tonight into Saturday. Rainfall amounts of 0.20 to 0.50 inches expected in most areas, with locally near an inch across the Sierra/Cascades. Snow levels will fall to near 4500 ft in the north to 5500 ft in the south with several inches of wet, heavy snowfall possible overnight into early Saturday.
However, a rapid return to early summer-like conditions late Sunday into much of next week as Pacific high pressure builds in again not only with rapid warming and drying, but also occasional NE/offshore winds.
Dead and dormant fuels have moistened considerably form their record dry levels at the start of the week. Most areas will be transitioning from the low end of the “Dry” category, into the “Moist” level in the short term. There will even be some short term snow cover across the higher terrain this weekend.
However, the significant warming and drying just after the early weekend weather system will quickly push most areas back into the “Dry” category. North Coast will be the last to dry out.
Grasses are 50-90% cured in lower elevations, and even mid elevations have had grasses begin to seed out...all about 6-8 weeks sooner than normal.
Significant longer-term drought continues across the region. The latest drought monitor map can be found at: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/.
North OPS: Preparedness Level 2
National: Preparedness Level 1
MACS Mode 1
For more information about this product, please go to: http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/Fire%20Potential%20Documentation.htm
And for more information on the national product please go to:
Forecasters: Basil 4/24/2015 0928 MDT