California - North Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential
Issued: Wednesday, Dec 24, 2014 Parameters:
|Predictive Service Area||
|NC01 - North Coast|
|NC02 - Mid Coast|
|NC03A - Bay Area-Marine|
|NC03B - Diablo/Santa Cruz Mtns|
|NC04 - Northwestern Mtns|
|NC05 - Sacramento Valley|
|NC06 - Northeast CA|
|NC07 - Northern Sierra|
|NC08 - East Side|
A strong and fast moving cold front will move through the North Ops region today moderate to heavy precipitation. S-SW winds are gusting to 20-30 mph on the west side of the Cascade-Sierra crest and 35-45 mph to the east. Snow levels will drop from above 6000 feet at the onset of precipitation to 3500 feet as the colder air moves in behind the front. The front and precipiation will reach the northern valley around noon and a Lake Tahoe-Sacramento-Bay Area line by late afternoon. The precipitation will come to an end in far NW CA by sunset and far southern and southeastern areas by midnight. The rain equivalent total is expected to be 0.50-1.50 inches above 4000 ft to the west of the Cascade-Sierra crest and 0.10-0.50 inches elsewhere.
Dry and breezy conditions are expected on Christmas Day and Friday. A mostly dry low pressure trough will drop into the North Ops region from the North Sunday and Monday. At this time only light precipitation is considered possible in far northern and eastern areas. A N-E wind pattern will develop as the trough moves south of the area on Monday and these dry gusty winds are expected to continue through Tuesday.
Fuels are in the moist category in all PSAs and will stay that way for the next couple of weeks at least. In the higher terrain above 5000 ft several feet of snow pack have accumulated.
Longer-term drought conditions are slowly being moderated, but it will be many more months before we know what conditions will be in place for the next fire season.
North OPS: Preparedness Level 1
National: Preparedness Level 1
MACS Mode 1
For more information about this product, please go to: http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/Fire%20Potential%20Documentation.htm
And for more information on the national product please go to:
Forecasters: Leach 12/24/2014 0953 MST