Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Hot and Dry

Missing Stations

  • Notchko
  • Whitmore

California - North Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Tuesday, Nov 25, 2014 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Mon
Nov 24
Nov 25
Nov 26
Nov 27
Nov 28
Nov 29
Nov 30
Dec 1
NC01 - North Coast
NC02 - Mid Coast
NC03A - Bay Area-Marine
NC03B - Diablo/Santa Cruz Mtns
NC04 - Northwestern Mtns
NC05 - Sacramento Valley
NC06 - Northeast CA
NC07 - Northern Sierra
NC08 - East Side


*** Fair to partly cloudy through early Thursday, before trending into a cooler and much wetter pattern for late Friday through Monday *** 


An eastern Pacific high pressure ridge aloft was centered about 300 miles off the NorCal coast Tuesday morning.  The ridge will amplify slightly today, as its north-south axis shifts steadily eastward and moves overhead in NOPS tonight.  This high keeps northern CA weather fair to locally partly cloudy through early Thursday, with maximum daytime temps above normal and humidity below  normal.  By mid afternoon on Thursday (Thanksgiving Day) we see minor cooling and a mid/high cloud cover increase, at least in the north.  There might even be some light rain in the NW corner of CA by sunset, as we see the initial signs of a transition into a much different governing weather pattern.  


Thursday night through Saturday will become wet over all of NOPS, as a warm front/ cold front comination move slowly into and then across the Area.  There is the most minor of breaks early Sunday, before a cold wet storm moves into the north state Sunday and continues into about Monday evening.  It will have moderate to heavier 2-day precipitation totals, and my Monday widespread 4000-5000 foot  snow levels.  Strongest of the increased winds in this pattern will likely be ESE to South from Sunday p.m. into Monday a.m.. 

Fuels/Fire Potential

NOPS fuels remain in the 'Moist' category for all PSAs throughout this 7-Day period, with near-zero expected risk for large/ significant fire activity.  While there will be localized minor drying of fine to medium fuels under the high pressure ridge influence today and Wednesday, all areas will trend back toward becoming moist then wet in the Thurs. night to Saturday afternoon time frame, and then become more so in the Sunday/Monday event.   Some fuels below 5500-6000 feet will  become snow-covered for the first time this fall by Monday.    



North OPS:  Preparedness Level 1               

National:      Preparedness Level 1

MACS Mode 1


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Forecasters: J. Snook 11/25/2014 0935 MST