GACC Map

Legend

Fuel Dryness


Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events


Wind
Hot and Dry
Lightning

Missing Stations

  • Notchko
  • Westside
  • Whitmore
  • Stampede

California - North Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Tuesday, Jul 22, 2014 Parameters:


Predictive Service Area Mon
Jul 21
Tue
Jul 22
Wed
Jul 23
Thu
Jul 24
Fri
Jul 25
Sat
Jul 26
Sun
Jul 27
Mon
Jul 28
NC01 - North Coast
NC02 - Mid Coast
NC03A - Bay Area-Marine
NC03B - Diablo/Santa Cruz Mtns
NC04 - Northwestern Mtns
NC05 - Sacramento Valley
NC06 - Northeast CA
NC07 - Northern Sierra
NC08 - East Side

Weather

*** More thunderstorms today, especially this afternoon and evening in the north ***

*** Gusty SW to W winds expected Wednesday ***

A small but active weather system will be moving across North Ops today. Plenty of moisture is available for this system to produce cloudiness and showers from the Bay Area northeastward across the Sacramento Valley. A few morning thunderstorms are also expected in those areas. Later this afternoon as the system moves further NE, conditions will stabilize and dry out somewhat in the southern portion of North Ops. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are then likely develop in the northern areas as the system arrives there. Locally heavy rain, some possible hail and gusty, erratic winds will accompany those storms.

Starting Wednesday, a strong high pressure ridge will move over North Ops as it stretches NW out of the Desert SW over California into Saturday. Gusty SW to W winds will develop Wednesday afternoon behind this system and could significantly fan any ongoing or new fire starts.  The high will also bring much drier conditions with a marked warming trend. Warmest inland areas will be 100-105 by the weekend, which is pretty seasonable for this time of year. Relatively light northerly winds will also be in place.

The flow over the region will become more southerly Sunday into early next week for a return of monsoon moisture working its way northward with a chance of daily isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially over the eastern mountains and possibly the northern mountains as well.

Fuels/Fire Potential

Although humidity has been higher for the better part of a week now along with some areas getting some precipitaiton, the current fire danger numbers show things to be more dry than moist out there from a fuels perspective. Some areas are probably more in the DRY category for today and Wednesday, but overall conditions appear to be somehere in the VERY DRY category.

Although a lot of the thunderstorms of late have had some good rain amounts with them, holdover fires are an expected reality over the next few days or even for a week or more. The gusty winds Wednesday will help reveal lingering fires and are considered a low-end HIGH RISK event. More new starts are possible Sunday into early next week with the return of afternoon/evening thundestorms.

Most of North Ops is in Extreme to Exceptional drought: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA

Resources

North OPS:  Preparedness Level 2                 

National:      Preparedness Level 3

MACS Mode 2

 

For more information about this product, please go to:  http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/Fire%20Potential%20Documentation.htm

And for more information on the national product please go to:

http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/explanation_of_Sig_7-Day_Fire_Pot_product.doc

 

Forecasters: BB 7/22/2014 0941 MDT