Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Wind - Sustained speeds of 20 mph or greater.
Hot and Dry - Temperatures above normal with humidity 20% or less.
Lightning - LALs of 3 or higher.

Missing Stations

  • None

Northern Rockies Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Wednesday, Jul 23, 2014 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Tue
Jul 22
Jul 23
Jul 24
Jul 25
Jul 26
Jul 27
Jul 28
Jul 29
NR01 - North ID Panhandle
NR02 - Northwest Montana
NR03 - South ID Panhandle
NR04 - Western Montana
NR05 - Camas Prairie of Idaho
NR06 - North Central ID and Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains
NR07 - Glacier NP and Wilderness Areas
NR08 - SW Montana W of Continental Divide
NR09 - Big Hole-SW Montana E of Continental Divide
NR10 - Northern Front Range
NR11 - West Central Montana
NR12 - South Central Montana & Yellowstone NP
NR13 - Northern Plains & Missouri Breaks
NR14 - Southern Montana (Big Horn / Powder River)
NR15 - NE Montana & NW N. Dakota
NR16 - SE Montana & SW N. Dakota
NR17 - Northeastern North Dakota
NR18 - Southeastern North Dakota

*** Strong...Possibly Severe Thunderstorms N ID and Western/Central MT Today.  Critical Fire Weather Day Tomorrow Central/Eastern MT ***

South-Southwest flow aloft ahead of a low pressure system moving into WA will strengthen today over N ID and western/central MT. As the cold front associated with the low approaches from the west...these areas will see scattered wet thunderstorms develop in afternoon/evening...with strong to severe storms possible north of a Grangeville-Butte-Helena line. These could contain large hail...heavy rain...and strong winds. Southwest MT will just see isolated wet storms today. Further east...over the plains in central/eastern dry conditions are expected with temps. in the 90s-low 100s and RHs of 10-20%...which will further dry out fuels. Some isolated wet thunderstorms are possible near the ND border late today...which could be severe. As the WA low moves inland tonight...the cold front will push through N ID and western MT late this evening...then across the rest of MT thu as the low tracks east in southern Canada. Wetting rains with the front/low passage late tonight/thu will be confined to PSAs 1-2-3-4-7. Strong potentially damaging winds will occur over far N ID and NW/N MT (especially over Glacier NP and the northern front range) with this. A high wind warning is in effect for the northern front range and adjacent plains tomorrow for winds gusts 60 mph or greater. Tomorrow will be a critical fire weather day for PSAs 13-14-eastern strong W-NW winds (35-50 mph PSAs 13-11 and 25-40 mph PSA 14) will develop as the front moves through...but temps. will still be in the 80s-low 90s with RHs 15-25%. Western ND will see an increasing chance of strong-severe wet thunderstorms late in the day tomorrow as the front moves through. Dry westerly flow with slightly below-average temps. and RHs falling back into the teens/20s percent is expected for N ID and western/central MT fri. Increasingly warmer dry weather with low RHs will return sat.-mon. these areas as the 4-corners upper high rebuilds over the region...with the possibility of more thunderstorms from monsoon moisture by mon. Cooler conditions eastern MT/ND will occur sat...but warming/drying will occur there sun/mon. Long-range models are indicating hot/dry weather dominated by the 4-corners upper high may continue through at least the middle of next week. 

Fuels/Fire Potential

The potential for the development and/or growth of large fires across the region is currently moderate most areas...but mderate-high PSAs 13-14. 


Resources are adequate.

Forecasters: Richmond 7/23/2014 0808 MDT