Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Windy, Dry and Unstable - Sustained winds of 20 mph or greater or consistent gusts to 35 mph or greater, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Hot, Dry and Unstable - Temperatures much above typical peak fire season maximums, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Lightning - LAL's of 3 or higher with humidity less than 20% and a Haines Index of 5+, preceded by several days of hot temperatures and followed by steady or lowering humidity and/or increased winds.

Missing Stations

  • Tonto Basin

Southwest Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Wednesday, Apr 16, 2014 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Tue
Apr 15
Apr 16
Apr 17
Apr 18
Apr 19
Apr 20
Apr 21
Apr 22
SW01 - Northwest AZ
SW02 - West-Central AZ
SW03 - Southwest AZ
SW04 - Four Corners Area
SW05 - Western Mogollon Rim
SW06N - Central AZ/PHX Metro
SW06S - Southeast AZ
SW07 - Northwest NM Mtns.
SW08 - White Mtns./Gila Region
SW09 - Central/SW NM
SW10 - Sangre de Cristo Mtns.
SW11 - CNTRL NM Highlands
SW12 - South-Central NM Mtns.
SW13 - NE NM-TX Panhandle
SW14S - Southwest TX


Warmer/drier...ahead of a storm to glance the region late tonight/early THU. Expect a likely marginal area of critical wind/low RH focused mainly southwestern NM later today. Cooler/more stable by FRI/SAT with precipitation focused divide eastward as a weak system traverses the region. An even stronger system next TUE-THU with a potpourri of weather likely.  A dynamic weather pattern continues with an active pattern expected to continue for the foreseeable future. Weak ridging to be broken down as a weather system will glance the region from the north with some precipitation across the northeast and some marginal wind/low RH conditions across the far south. Moist across the east as a backdoor front sinks south-west behind the departing system with another weather system to arrive FRI/SAT with slightly cooler temps., increased RH values, more stable air and likely precipitation focused across the eastern 1/2 of the region. Drier beginning on SUN with a warmup MON/TUE just ahead of another stronger weather system next TUE-THU. Likely areas of critical wind/low RH with this system next TUE/WED with a shot of cooler temps. and precipitation across parts of the north and eastern plains.

Fuels/Fire Potential

Fire potential back to a moderate/High around midweek, then decreasing again late week/weekend. Swings in fire potential will continue to track the changeable weather through the coming weeks. Significant fire activity which does occur will most likely be human-related, and occurring on drier and windier days across low-mid elevation areas where dormant/available fine fuels continue to be a major factor. With that said, conditions are beginning to vary so substantially that we may see as many warm/dry/unstable days as windy ones this spring...and we're seeing signals of dry thunderstorm potential towards the end of the warm/dry periods that could have impact.  A mosaic of new and ongoing green-up is likely to continue, which will generally mitigate and also complicate the contribution of fine herbaceous fuels towards fire potential.


Southwest Daily Resource Summary

Southwest Anticipated Resource Demand (SWARD) 
  On the SWARD, you'll find:
      - Anticipated Demand for Resources within the Southwest Area
      - Anticipated Demand for OUT-OF-AREA Type 1 Crews and IMT's
      - Anticipated Demand for SWA Resources to OUT-OF-AREA assignments.

Printable Version of 7-Day Product

Forecasters: 4/16/2014 1032 MDT