Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Windy, Dry and Unstable - Sustained winds of 20 mph or greater or consistent gusts to 35 mph or greater, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Hot, Dry and Unstable - Temperatures much above typical peak fire season maximums, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Lightning - LAL's of 3 or higher with humidity less than 20% and a Haines Index of 5+, preceded by several days of hot temperatures and followed by steady or lowering humidity and/or increased winds.

Missing Stations

  • Tonto Basin

Southwest Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Wednesday, Apr 23, 2014 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Tue
Apr 22
Apr 23
Apr 24
Apr 25
Apr 26
Apr 27
Apr 28
Apr 29
SW01 - Northwest AZ
SW02 - West-Central AZ
SW03 - Southwest AZ
SW04 - Four Corners Area
SW05 - Western Mogollon Rim
SW06N - Central AZ/PHX Metro
SW06S - Southeast AZ
SW07 - Northwest NM Mtns.
SW08 - White Mtns./Gila Region
SW09 - Central/SW NM
SW10 - Sangre de Cristo Mtns.
SW11 - CNTRL NM Highlands
SW12 - South-Central NM Mtns.
SW13 - NE NM-TX Panhandle
SW14S - Southwest TX


A storm to deliver mainly breezy/windy conditions today with areas of critical wind/low RH conditions. Increased wind likely with a weekend storm expected to move over the northern tier of the region with areas of precipitation over the northern 1/2 or so of AZ and northwestern NM. A dynamic weather pattern to continue for the foreseeable future. Another weather system for today with likely areas of critical wind/low RH conditions mainly across cntrl/eastern NM with a shot of slightly cooler temps in its wake. Breezy/windy on FRI into the weekend with areas of critical wind/low RH conditions...mainly along/east of the divide. Higher confidence now for the weekend system that the storm will track from west-east across the northern tier with precipitation impacts focused across the north...esp. across the northern 1/2 or AZ and the northwestern 1/3 of NM. Greatest critical wind/low RH impacts expected to be further south/east. Strong northwesterly flow behind the departing system expected to dig/intensify east of the region...keeping much of the eastern 1/2-1/3 or so of the area near to slightly below normal temp.-wise, slightly more humid, and breezy...warmer/drier further west through the first half of next week.

Fuels/Fire Potential

Fire potential to increase to moderate/High for portions of the region this week then again for the coming weekend as weather systems continue to impact the region. Swings in fire potential will continue to track the changeable weather through the coming weeks. Significant fire activity which does occur will most likely be human-related, and occurring on drier and windier days across low-mid elevation areas where dormant/available fine fuels continue to be a major factor. With that said, conditions are beginning to vary so substantially that we may see as many warm/dry/unstable days as windy ones this spring...and we're seeing signals of dry thunderstorm potential towards the end of the warm/dry periods that could have impact.  A mosaic of new and ongoing green-up is likely to continue, which will generally mitigate and also complicate the contribution of fine herbaceous fuels towards fire potential.


Southwest Daily Resource Summary

Southwest Anticipated Resource Demand (SWARD) 
  On the SWARD, you'll find:
      - Anticipated Demand for Resources within the Southwest Area
      - Anticipated Demand for OUT-OF-AREA Type 1 Crews and IMT's
      - Anticipated Demand for SWA Resources to OUT-OF-AREA assignments.

Printable Version of 7-Day Product

Forecasters: 4/23/2014 1026 MDT