Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Windy, Dry and Unstable - Sustained winds of 20 mph or greater or consistent gusts to 35 mph or greater, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Hot, Dry and Unstable - Temperatures much above typical peak fire season maximums, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Lightning - LAL's of 3 or higher with humidity less than 20% and a Haines Index of 5+, preceded by several days of hot temperatures and followed by steady or lowering humidity and/or increased winds.

Missing Stations

  • Tonto Basin

Southwest Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Friday, Apr 24, 2015 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Thu
Apr 23
Apr 24
Apr 25
Apr 26
Apr 27
Apr 28
Apr 29
Apr 30
SW01 - Northwest AZ
SW02 - West-Central AZ
SW03 - Southwest AZ
SW04 - Four Corners Area
SW05 - Western Mogollon Rim
SW06N - Central AZ/PHX Metro
SW06S - Southeast AZ
SW07 - Northwest NM Mtns.
SW08 - White Mtns./Gila Region
SW09 - Central/SW NM
SW10 - Sangre de Cristo Mtns.
SW11 - CNTRL NM Highlands
SW12 - South-Central NM Mtns.
SW13 - NE NM-TX Panhandle
SW14S - Southwest TX

Breezy to locally windy, seasonally cool and humid through the weekend...with chances for precipitation focused west & north and warmest/driest conditions lingering far southeast.  Cool & humid east and warming & drying west during the first half of next week.  An active pattern will persist, with one upper level disturbance moving east across the central/southern Rockies today and a 2nd, stronger low to drift SE across the Four Corners & towards TX over the weekend and into early next week. Breezy/windy, cooler & more humid conditions will translate eastward across the area today and be reinforced over the weekend and into next week... constraining lingering windy/dry conditions to the far SE portion of the area. While areas of precipitation will accompany this pattern across mainly western & northern halves of the area...the far southeast (SW TX) will see breezy to windy and dry conditions, with the winds peaking on SUN. Seasonally cool and humid conditions will encompass much of the area early next week, with a warming/drying trend working west>east across the area by midweek.

Fuels/Fire Potential

Trend of overall Low potential for significant fire potential continuing, with relatively high potential shifting to the east/southeast through the weekend while the west/north see decreasing potential.  No widespread areas with a High Risk for significant fire potential expected.  Changeable weather conditions will continue to temper overall area fire potential for the foreseeable future.  Fine fuels conditions will continue to complicate the situation, with green-up (and re-green) in some areas mitigating fire potential...and cured/curing fuels in others increasing fire potential.  Human caused fires in dormant (or cured) fine fuels on warmer, winder & drier days will remain the primary general concern. 


Southwest Anticipated Resource Demand (SWARD) 
  On the SWARD, you'll find:
      - Anticipated Demand for Resources within the Southwest Area
      - Anticipated Demand for OUT-OF-AREA Type 1 Crews and IMT's
      - Anticipated Demand for SWA Resources to OUT-OF-AREA assignments.

Southwest Daily Resource Summary

Printable Version of 7-Day Product

Forecasters: Maxwell 4/24/2015 1019 MDT