Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Windy, Dry and Unstable - Sustained winds of 20 mph or greater or consistent gusts to 35 mph or greater, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Hot, Dry and Unstable - Temperatures much above typical peak fire season maximums, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Lightning - LAL's of 3 or higher with humidity less than 20% and a Haines Index of 5+, preceded by several days of hot temperatures and followed by steady or lowering humidity and/or increased winds.

Missing Stations

  • Tonto Basin

Southwest Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Thursday, Dec 18, 2014 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Wed
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Dec 21
Dec 22
Dec 23
Dec 24
SW01 - Northwest AZ
SW02 - West-Central AZ
SW03 - Southwest AZ
SW04 - Four Corners Area
SW05 - Western Mogollon Rim
SW06N - Central AZ/PHX Metro
SW06S - Southeast AZ
SW07 - Northwest NM Mtns.
SW08 - White Mtns./Gila Region
SW09 - Central/SW NM
SW10 - Sangre de Cristo Mtns.
SW11 - CNTRL NM Highlands
SW12 - South-Central NM Mtns.
SW13 - NE NM-TX Panhandle
SW14S - Southwest TX


Continued unsettled and cooler with light precipitation focused from southeastern AZ eastward into far west TX today. A quicker/drier system appears on tap for the weekend...mainly bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler/colder air. Milder/continued dry early-middle part of next week. The large-scale pattern presently features an active storm track that will bring systems across the Southwest every 3-5 days. This will result in brief mild and dry conditions between systems and areas/periods of rain & higher elevation snow as the systems move through.  On this schedule, systems will move through the Southwest today and again over the weekend. The bulk of the moisture today looks to impact southeastern AZ eastward into west TX today. The weekend system appears to be more of a quick hitter bringing more cooler/colder air in, focused east. A northwest flow pattern looks likely to develop thereafter, with dry conditions overall...and becoming milder, esp. west. A more active period will likely ensue again around Christmas into the last full weekend of December.  

Fuels/Fire Potential

Risk for significant fire activity overall negligible for the forecast period. A more active and moist late fall/early winter weather pattern will keep fire potential low overall for the foreseeable future. Human caused fires in dormant fine fuels on warmer, winder & drier days will be the primary general concern.


Southwest Anticipated Resource Demand (SWARD) 
  On the SWARD, you'll find:
      - Anticipated Demand for Resources within the Southwest Area
      - Anticipated Demand for OUT-OF-AREA Type 1 Crews and IMT's
      - Anticipated Demand for SWA Resources to OUT-OF-AREA assignments.

Southwest Daily Resource Summary

Printable Version of 7-Day Product

Forecasters: 12/18/2014 0835 MST