Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Windy, Dry and Unstable - Sustained winds of 20 mph or greater or consistent gusts to 35 mph or greater, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Hot, Dry and Unstable - Temperatures much above typical peak fire season maximums, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Lightning - LAL's of 3 or higher with humidity less than 20% and a Haines Index of 5+, preceded by several days of hot temperatures and followed by steady or lowering humidity and/or increased winds.

Missing Stations

  • Tonto Basin

Southwest Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Friday, Jun 19, 2015 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Thu
Jun 18
Jun 19
Jun 20
Jun 21
Jun 22
Jun 23
Jun 24
Jun 25
SW01 - Northwest AZ
SW02 - West-Central AZ
SW03 - Southwest AZ
SW04 - Four Corners Area
SW05 - Western Mogollon Rim
SW06N - Central AZ/PHX Metro
SW06S - Southeast AZ
SW07 - Northwest NM Mtns.
SW08 - White Mtns./Gila Region
SW09 - Central/SW NM
SW10 - Sangre de Cristo Mtns.
SW11 - CNTRL NM Highlands
SW12 - South-Central NM Mtns.
SW13 - NE NM-TX Panhandle
SW14S - Southwest TX


Hot & dry weather to peak today through MON. An easterly wave will begin to impact the southeastern parts of the region early next week. This feature, along with a displaced upper high, and backdoor frontal activity will act to gradually diminish areas of lower RH levels and increase the coverage of wet shwrs/tstms into the last weekend of June.  Via a gradually strengthening upper high that will move over the region from west-east over the weekend, expect the hottest and driest period so far this season to occur through early next week with higher RH levels and periodic rainfall remaining east/well east of the NM central mountain chain. High temperatures will peak around 10 degrees Above Normal the next few days with low RH levels. Continued indications of an easterly wave to move towards the region during the first half of next week as the upper high slides slightly northward. This will allow moisture to spread into approximately the southeastern 1/2 of the region...with scattered wet shwrs/tstms likely as well as increased RH levels and gradually lowering temps. It appears as if this trend will gradually spread north/west to encompass most of the region by the last full weekend of June with perhaps northwest sections of the region remaining on the drier side closer to the Great Basin upper level high. 

Fuels/Fire Potential

Moderate Risk conditions likely peaking through the first half of next week. Fire potential still lagging a bit due to the abundant moisture this spring but it will increase quickly into early next week. Very warm/hot temperatures and low RH values have arrived across the western 2/3 of the region and will attempt to spread even further eastward through this weekend. Near record-record high temps are possible. High Haines values, low RH values, hot temperatures, and poorer overnight recovery values are in store from today into early next week. Signs of a tropical easterly wave remain intact around TUE/WED of next week. This will lead to an increase in RH values as well as increasing areas of wet shwrs/tstms across about the southeastern 1/2 or so of the region by the mid-late part of next week. A mosaic of fine herbaceous fuels conditions will develop that will largely drive day to day fire potential.


Southwest Anticipated Resource Demand (SWARD) 
  On the SWARD, you'll find:
      - Anticipated Demand for Resources within the Southwest Area
      - Anticipated Demand for OUT-OF-AREA Type 1 Crews and IMT's
      - Anticipated Demand for SWA Resources to OUT-OF-AREA assignments.

Southwest Daily Resource Summary

Printable Version of 7-Day Product

Forecasters: 6/19/2015 0932 MDT