Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Windy, Dry and Unstable - Sustained winds of 20 mph or greater or consistent gusts to 35 mph or greater, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Hot, Dry and Unstable - Temperatures much above typical peak fire season maximums, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Lightning - LAL's of 3 or higher with humidity less than 20% and a Haines Index of 5+, preceded by several days of hot temperatures and followed by steady or lowering humidity and/or increased winds.

Missing Stations

  • None

Southwest Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Thursday, Aug 28, 2014 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Wed
Aug 27
Aug 28
Aug 29
Aug 30
Aug 31
Sep 1
Sep 2
Sep 3
SW01 - Northwest AZ
SW02 - West-Central AZ
SW03 - Southwest AZ
SW04 - Four Corners Area
SW05 - Western Mogollon Rim
SW06N - Central AZ/PHX Metro
SW06S - Southeast AZ
SW07 - Northwest NM Mtns.
SW08 - White Mtns./Gila Region
SW09 - Central/SW NM
SW10 - Sangre de Cristo Mtns.
SW11 - CNTRL NM Highlands
SW12 - South-Central NM Mtns.
SW13 - NE NM-TX Panhandle
SW14S - Southwest TX


***Fire Potential Outlook UNAVAILABLE.  Only text below is updated.***

Lingering showers & thunderstorms near & east of the NM central mountain chain today.  Otherwise, significant W>E drying ongoing through the weekend...with breezy to locally windy and dry conditions across the NW half of the area SAT/SUNA dry westerly flow regime will continue through the next 7 days as a series of disturbances pass east across the central Rockies. This flow is expected to weaken and become more moist & southerly later next week as a ridge builds over the SE portion of the area. Lingering showers and storms are expected today near/east of the NM central mountain chain, while drier air generally works eastward across the area behind low pressure moving east from CO.  FRI is expected to feature fair weather with near to below normal temperatures.  SAT/SUN are shaping up to feature fairly widespread W/SW breezes accompanied by warmer temperatures and RH below 20%. Portions of northern/northwest AZ can expect to see winds in the 15-25 mph range with RH near 15%.  Winds will decrease and RH come up a bit during the first half of next week, before a more pronounced moisture increase will begin to bring the threat for showers/storms back into the area for the latter half of next week.

Fuels/Fire Potential

General Low Risk for significant fire activity...though with increasing fire potential over the weekend due to warmer, drier and more breezy conditions expected in some areas.   Recent rainfall will continue to generally mitigate significant fire potential. With low pressure systems now beginning to impact the area, the prospect of increasing general winds (especially from the west) and drier air moving in will need to be considered for any new or ongoing activity.  This will be an issue across the northwest half of the area this weekend with the increased westerly flow expected.


Southwest Anticipated Resource Demand (SWARD) 
  On the SWARD, you'll find:
      - Anticipated Demand for Resources within the Southwest Area
      - Anticipated Demand for OUT-OF-AREA Type 1 Crews and IMT's
      - Anticipated Demand for SWA Resources to OUT-OF-AREA assignments.

Southwest Daily Resource Summary

Printable Version of 7-Day Product

Forecasters: Maxwell COR 8/28/2014 1031 MDT