Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Windy, Dry and Unstable - Sustained winds of 20 mph or greater or consistent gusts to 35 mph or greater, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Hot, Dry and Unstable - Temperatures much above typical peak fire season maximums, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Lightning - LAL's of 3 or higher with humidity less than 20% and a Haines Index of 5+, preceded by several days of hot temperatures and followed by steady or lowering humidity and/or increased winds.

Missing Stations

  • Tonto Basin

Southwest Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Wednesday, Oct 1, 2014 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Tue
Sep 30
Oct 1
Oct 2
Oct 3
Oct 4
Oct 5
Oct 6
Oct 7
SW01 - Northwest AZ
SW02 - West-Central AZ
SW03 - Southwest AZ
SW04 - Four Corners Area
SW05 - Western Mogollon Rim
SW06N - Central AZ/PHX Metro
SW06S - Southeast AZ
SW07 - Northwest NM Mtns.
SW08 - White Mtns./Gila Region
SW09 - Central/SW NM
SW10 - Sangre de Cristo Mtns.
SW11 - CNTRL NM Highlands
SW12 - South-Central NM Mtns.
SW13 - NE NM-TX Panhandle
SW14S - Southwest TX

Dry and near-below normal temperatures the next few days as a reinforcing shot of drier/cooler air glances the region late WED/THU. Gradually warming/drying regime into early next week area-wide. Another impulse will drive west-east to our north late today/THU reinforcing the cooler/drier regime across the region. This will bring the coolest shot of temperatures to the region so far this fall today-THU area-wide with temperatures around 5 or so degrees below normal. Thereafter, a warming/drying pattern into early next week with a high pressure ridge along the Pacific coast and a deep trough across the upper midwest/Great Lakes region. This ridge will begin to breakdown early next week as a weak upper low will begin to form off of the CA coastal area. This will begin to draw moisture back into the region from the east-southeast...but not until the end of next week.

Fuels/Fire Potential

Risk for significant fire activity overall low for the forecast period. Drying will begin in earnest area-wide through the forecast period. Drier weather to move across the region the rest of this week into next with a warming trend by late week through the weekend, but still rather low significant fire likelihood given the recent prolonged wet/moist period.


Southwest Anticipated Resource Demand (SWARD) 
  On the SWARD, you'll find:
      - Anticipated Demand for Resources within the Southwest Area
      - Anticipated Demand for OUT-OF-AREA Type 1 Crews and IMT's
      - Anticipated Demand for SWA Resources to OUT-OF-AREA assignments.

Southwest Daily Resource Summary

Printable Version of 7-Day Product

Forecasters: 10/1/2014 1023 MDT