Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Windy, Dry and Unstable - Sustained winds of 20 mph or greater or consistent gusts to 35 mph or greater, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Hot, Dry and Unstable - Temperatures much above typical peak fire season maximums, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Lightning - LAL's of 3 or higher with humidity less than 20% and a Haines Index of 5+, preceded by several days of hot temperatures and followed by steady or lowering humidity and/or increased winds.

Missing Stations

  • Tonto Basin

Southwest Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Wednesday, Nov 19, 2014 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Tue
Nov 18
Nov 19
Nov 20
Nov 21
Nov 22
Nov 23
Nov 24
Nov 25
SW01 - Northwest AZ
SW02 - West-Central AZ
SW03 - Southwest AZ
SW04 - Four Corners Area
SW05 - Western Mogollon Rim
SW06N - Central AZ/PHX Metro
SW06S - Southeast AZ
SW07 - Northwest NM Mtns.
SW08 - White Mtns./Gila Region
SW09 - Central/SW NM
SW10 - Sangre de Cristo Mtns.
SW11 - CNTRL NM Highlands
SW12 - South-Central NM Mtns.
SW13 - NE NM-TX Panhandle
SW14S - Southwest TX

Near to below normal temperatures with some scant moisture across northern & eastern portions of the area into early next week, with milder & drier conditions south & west.  Periodically breezy area-wide. The large-scale pattern features an active jet stream oriented from WNW>ESE across the central Rockies, with an upper level disturbance forecast to drop SE across the Four Corners this weekend.  This overall pattern will persist colder and relatively more moist conditions in general near/east of the NM central mountain chain and across parts of the northern NM mountains, while areas further west and south will be milder and drier.  The system this weekend will bring an increase in winds area-wide, but with much colder air and some light snow across NM & west TX while AZ remains very dry overall. Breezy to windy and dry conditions are expected across the Lower CO River Valley on SUN with this situation. Otherwise, look a cold start to the week followed by a gradual warm-up...with otherwise little change in the overall pattern during through the middle of next week.

Fuels/Fire Potential

Risk for significant fire activity overall low for the forecast period. The late fall/early winter weather pattern will keep fire potential low for the foreseeable future. Human caused fires in dormant fine fuels on warmer, winder & drier days will be the primary general concern.


Southwest Anticipated Resource Demand (SWARD) 
  On the SWARD, you'll find:
      - Anticipated Demand for Resources within the Southwest Area
      - Anticipated Demand for OUT-OF-AREA Type 1 Crews and IMT's
      - Anticipated Demand for SWA Resources to OUT-OF-AREA assignments.

Southwest Daily Resource Summary

Printable Version of 7-Day Product

Forecasters: 11/19/2014 1340 MST