Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Windy, Dry and Unstable - Sustained winds of 20 mph or greater or consistent gusts to 35 mph or greater, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Hot, Dry and Unstable - Temperatures much above typical peak fire season maximums, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Lightning - LAL's of 3 or higher with humidity less than 20% and a Haines Index of 5+, preceded by several days of hot temperatures and followed by steady or lowering humidity and/or increased winds.

Missing Stations

  • Tonto Basin

Southwest Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Tuesday, Mar 3, 2015 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Mon
Mar 2
Mar 3
Mar 4
Mar 5
Mar 6
Mar 7
Mar 8
Mar 9
SW01 - Northwest AZ
SW02 - West-Central AZ
SW03 - Southwest AZ
SW04 - Four Corners Area
SW05 - Western Mogollon Rim
SW06N - Central AZ/PHX Metro
SW06S - Southeast AZ
SW07 - Northwest NM Mtns.
SW08 - White Mtns./Gila Region
SW09 - Central/SW NM
SW10 - Sangre de Cristo Mtns.
SW11 - CNTRL NM Highlands
SW12 - South-Central NM Mtns.
SW13 - NE NM-TX Panhandle
SW14S - Southwest TX

Continued very active pattern for the next few days as a large-scale upper level trough swings over the region from the west around midweek. Gradually drier/milder by late week/next weekend, esp. across the west. Very active pattern to continue through around midweek as a large upper level trough, presently off the coast of srn CA, swings over the region today/WED. The heaviest precipitation is now over, but some upslope flow associated with a backdoor cold front will bring some areas of rain/snow to areas along/east of the NM central mtns later tonight/WED with some lighter precipitation possible further west. This backdoor cold front into NM on WED will keep things cool/cold along/east of the divide until SAT when it begins moderating back to around normal. Drier/warmer west of the divide FRI-MON. Another backdoor cold front into the east around the middle part of next week with more moist conditions back west towards the divide.

Fuels/Fire Potential

Risk for significant fire activity overall minimal for the forecast period. A mix of winter and early spring conditions will maintain low overall fire potential for the foreseeable future. Human caused fires in dormant fine fuels on any warmer, winder & drier days will be the primary general concern.


Southwest Anticipated Resource Demand (SWARD) 
  On the SWARD, you'll find:
      - Anticipated Demand for Resources within the Southwest Area
      - Anticipated Demand for OUT-OF-AREA Type 1 Crews and IMT's
      - Anticipated Demand for SWA Resources to OUT-OF-AREA assignments.

Southwest Daily Resource Summary

Printable Version of 7-Day Product

Forecasters: 3/3/2015 0828 MST