Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Windy, Dry and Unstable - Sustained winds of 20 mph or greater or consistent gusts to 35 mph or greater, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Hot, Dry and Unstable - Temperatures much above typical peak fire season maximums, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Lightning - LAL's of 3 or higher with humidity less than 20% and a Haines Index of 5+, preceded by several days of hot temperatures and followed by steady or lowering humidity and/or increased winds.

Missing Stations

  • Tonto Basin

Southwest Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Tuesday, Jul 22, 2014 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Mon
Jul 21
Jul 22
Jul 23
Jul 24
Jul 25
Jul 26
Jul 27
Jul 28
SW01 - Northwest AZ
SW02 - West-Central AZ
SW03 - Southwest AZ
SW04 - Four Corners Area
SW05 - Western Mogollon Rim
SW06N - Central AZ/PHX Metro
SW06S - Southeast AZ
SW07 - Northwest NM Mtns.
SW08 - White Mtns./Gila Region
SW09 - Central/SW NM
SW10 - Sangre de Cristo Mtns.
SW11 - CNTRL NM Highlands
SW12 - South-Central NM Mtns.
SW13 - NE NM-TX Panhandle
SW14S - Southwest TX


Overall warmer/generally drier weather this week nearly area-wide...with the driest conditions across about the western 1/2 or so of AZ. Moisture to gradually increase across the west late this week/early over the weekend before becoming more focused along/east of the divide early next week. Moisture conditions will fluctuate as the center of the strong upper level high meanders either just north of the region or over the northern portions through FRI. A substantial warming trend, nearly area-wide is expected through much of the week, due to the nearby presence of the strong upper level high. Expect minimum RH values in the teens where storm activity is absent through late week along with Above normal temperatures. In general, expect the highest coverage of wetting shwrs/tstms to be from the divide eastward today with a gradual but distinct shift further north/west by WED/THU out along/west of the divide with drier weather south/east. Several backdoor cold front during the first part of next week will moisten up the eastern 1/2 or so of the region with increased shwr/tstm activity. 

Fuels/Fire Potential

General Low Risk conditions relative to significant fire activity. Limited Moderate Risk conditions developing, focused over western/northwestern AZ. Monsoon season conditions will continue to largely mitigate significant fire activity, although the recent wetter period is expected to transition to a significant drying trend likely into late week...with some areas/periods of higher fire potential focused west of the continental divide.  Fire potential is expected to decrease again in these areas later this week into the weekend. 


Southwest Anticipated Resource Demand (SWARD) 
  On the SWARD, you'll find:
      - Anticipated Demand for Resources within the Southwest Area
      - Anticipated Demand for OUT-OF-AREA Type 1 Crews and IMT's
      - Anticipated Demand for SWA Resources to OUT-OF-AREA assignments.

Southwest Daily Resource Summary

Printable Version of 7-Day Product

Forecasters: 7/22/2014 1028 MDT