Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Windy, Dry and Unstable - Sustained winds of 20 mph or greater or consistent gusts to 35 mph or greater, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Hot, Dry and Unstable - Temperatures much above typical peak fire season maximums, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Lightning - LAL's of 3 or higher with humidity less than 20% and a Haines Index of 5+, preceded by several days of hot temperatures and followed by steady or lowering humidity and/or increased winds.

Missing Stations

  • Tonto Basin

Southwest Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Friday, Aug 1, 2014 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Thu
Jul 31
Aug 1
Aug 2
Aug 3
Aug 4
Aug 5
Aug 6
Aug 7
SW01 - Northwest AZ
SW02 - West-Central AZ
SW03 - Southwest AZ
SW04 - Four Corners Area
SW05 - Western Mogollon Rim
SW06N - Central AZ/PHX Metro
SW06S - Southeast AZ
SW07 - Northwest NM Mtns.
SW08 - White Mtns./Gila Region
SW09 - Central/SW NM
SW10 - Sangre de Cristo Mtns.
SW11 - CNTRL NM Highlands
SW12 - South-Central NM Mtns.
SW13 - NE NM-TX Panhandle
SW14S - Southwest TX


Overall trend for more moist and less hot environment continuing, with warmer/drier conditions across AZ giving way as moisture shifts focus from the eastern 2/3 of the area to the western 2/3 of the area. Upper level high pressure will continue to weaken and wobble over the area, as low level moisture continues to be drawn into the clockwise high circulation from the south and east with aid from several backdoor cold frontal pushes.  The focus for scattered storm activity & rainfall will gradually shift from the eastern half-2/3 of the area today to the western 2/3 of the area today/SAT...with the recent hot and moderately dry conditions across portions of AZ coming to an end.. Hints of a drier/hotter return for western 1/2 or so AZ by around the middle of next week.

Fuels/Fire Potential

General Low Risk conditions relative to significant fire activity...with further decreasing fire potential as moisture shifts around the area.   Monsoon season conditions will continue to largely mitigate significant fire activity. The recent warmer/drier trend across the west will come to an abrupt end as the area transitions into a wetter period.  Overall fire potential will decrease with this trend area-wide. It appears, however, that another uptick in fire potential across western AZ is likely starting around the middle of next week.  


Southwest Anticipated Resource Demand (SWARD) 
  On the SWARD, you'll find:
      - Anticipated Demand for Resources within the Southwest Area
      - Anticipated Demand for OUT-OF-AREA Type 1 Crews and IMT's
      - Anticipated Demand for SWA Resources to OUT-OF-AREA assignments.

Southwest Daily Resource Summary

Printable Version of 7-Day Product

Forecasters: 8/1/2014 1002 MDT