Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Windy, Dry and Unstable - Sustained winds of 20 mph or greater or consistent gusts to 35 mph or greater, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Hot, Dry and Unstable - Temperatures much above typical peak fire season maximums, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Lightning - LAL's of 3 or higher with humidity less than 20% and a Haines Index of 5+, preceded by several days of hot temperatures and followed by steady or lowering humidity and/or increased winds.

Missing Stations

  • Tonto Basin

Southwest Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Friday, Oct 31, 2014 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Thu
Oct 30
Oct 31
Nov 1
Nov 2
Nov 3
Nov 4
Nov 5
Nov 6
SW01 - Northwest AZ
SW02 - West-Central AZ
SW03 - Southwest AZ
SW04 - Four Corners Area
SW05 - Western Mogollon Rim
SW06N - Central AZ/PHX Metro
SW06S - Southeast AZ
SW07 - Northwest NM Mtns.
SW08 - White Mtns./Gila Region
SW09 - Central/SW NM
SW10 - Sangre de Cristo Mtns.
SW11 - CNTRL NM Highlands
SW12 - South-Central NM Mtns.
SW13 - NE NM-TX Panhandle
SW14S - Southwest TX

Fair and dry weather transitioning into breezier, more unsettled conditions by this weekend.  Seasonally cool early next week, with rainfall potential to linger across the SE portion of the area with some breezy conditions ahead of a mid-late week warm-up focused central and western sections. A high pressure ridge aloft will continue to move east into Texas into SAT as an upper level trough approaches and moves inland across the west coast. A backdoor cold front has moved S & W into the region overnight and has increased low-level RH values along/east of the divide this mrng. The west coast trough is forecast to move east into the heart of the Southwest this weekend, combining with the residual moisture associated with the cold front, before stalling over the southeastern portion of the area through much of next week.  All of this portends to an end to the recent fair, dry and mild conditions. Today>SUN look to be variably cloudy and breezy, with a slight chance of showers mainly near/east of the divide...and a gradual downward trend in temperatures.  MON>TUE look to be much cooler with lingering breezes and decent chances for rainfall across all of SW TX into SE NM. Temperatures will head back to near-normal by later next week with drier conditions focused central/west and lingering cooler/more moist conditions focused south/east.

Fuels/Fire Potential

Risk for significant fire activity overall low for the forecast period. The fall weather pattern will keep fire potential low for the foreseeable future. 


Southwest Anticipated Resource Demand (SWARD) 
  On the SWARD, you'll find:
      - Anticipated Demand for Resources within the Southwest Area
      - Anticipated Demand for OUT-OF-AREA Type 1 Crews and IMT's
      - Anticipated Demand for SWA Resources to OUT-OF-AREA assignments.

Southwest Daily Resource Summary

Printable Version of 7-Day Product

Forecasters: 10/31/2014 0948 MDT