Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Windy, Dry and Unstable - Sustained winds of 20 mph or greater or consistent gusts to 35 mph or greater, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Hot, Dry and Unstable - Temperatures much above typical peak fire season maximums, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Lightning - LAL's of 3 or higher with humidity less than 20% and a Haines Index of 5+, preceded by several days of hot temperatures and followed by steady or lowering humidity and/or increased winds.

Missing Stations

  • Tonto Basin

Southwest Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Friday, Oct 24, 2014 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Thu
Oct 23
Oct 24
Oct 25
Oct 26
Oct 27
Oct 28
Oct 29
Oct 30
SW01 - Northwest AZ
SW02 - West-Central AZ
SW03 - Southwest AZ
SW04 - Four Corners Area
SW05 - Western Mogollon Rim
SW06N - Central AZ/PHX Metro
SW06S - Southeast AZ
SW07 - Northwest NM Mtns.
SW08 - White Mtns./Gila Region
SW09 - Central/SW NM
SW10 - Sangre de Cristo Mtns.
SW11 - CNTRL NM Highlands
SW12 - South-Central NM Mtns.
SW13 - NE NM-TX Panhandle
SW14S - Southwest TX

Ridging to build overhead today with strong warming/drying as a result.  Breakdown of the upper ridge pattern beginning on SAT with a cooler/breezier trend starting SUN into the middle part of next week. Warmer/drier late week. A drying/warming trend will ensue that will be quite significant today into SAT with strong ridging aloft to build overhead. Some near record/record high temperatures will be possible across the east today/SAT. Ridging to begin to breakdown on SAT as a Pacific system drives eastward into the Great Basin this weekend with a breezier/cooler regime by late weekend into next week. Temperatures will oscillate from around 5-8 degrees Above Normal across the region the next few days to near-slightly Below Normal by early next week with the main trough to swing eastward to our north late SUN/MON with another impulse to impact mainly the eastern half of the region around the middle part of next week. It appears mainly dry however, with increased breeziness and temperatures fluctuations to be the main impacts. Ridging to build back aloft for calmer/milder conditions late next week.

Fuels/Fire Potential

Risk for significant fire activity overall low for the forecast period. Recent moisture, followed by and up/down early fall weather pattern will keep fire potential low for the foreseeable future. 


Southwest Anticipated Resource Demand (SWARD) 
  On the SWARD, you'll find:
      - Anticipated Demand for Resources within the Southwest Area
      - Anticipated Demand for OUT-OF-AREA Type 1 Crews and IMT's
      - Anticipated Demand for SWA Resources to OUT-OF-AREA assignments.

Southwest Daily Resource Summary

Printable Version of 7-Day Product

Forecasters: 10/24/2014 0952 MDT