Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Windy, Dry and Unstable - Sustained winds of 20 mph or greater or consistent gusts to 35 mph or greater, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Hot, Dry and Unstable - Temperatures much above typical peak fire season maximums, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+.
Lightning - LAL's of 3 or higher with humidity less than 20% and a Haines Index of 5+, preceded by several days of hot temperatures and followed by steady or lowering humidity and/or increased winds.

Missing Stations

  • Tonto Basin

Southwest Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Tuesday, Jun 2, 2015 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Mon
Jun 1
Jun 2
Jun 3
Jun 4
Jun 5
Jun 6
Jun 7
Jun 8
SW01 - Northwest AZ
SW02 - West-Central AZ
SW03 - Southwest AZ
SW04 - Four Corners Area
SW05 - Western Mogollon Rim
SW06N - Central AZ/PHX Metro
SW06S - Southeast AZ
SW07 - Northwest NM Mtns.
SW08 - White Mtns./Gila Region
SW09 - Central/SW NM
SW10 - Sangre de Cristo Mtns.
SW11 - CNTRL NM Highlands
SW12 - South-Central NM Mtns.
SW13 - NE NM-TX Panhandle
SW14S - Southwest TX


Breezy to locally windy and dry through WED, before a plume of subtropical moisture begins to set up on THU and last through early next week...impacting the area with widespread cloud cover, high RH and areas of rainfall.  The active late spring/early summer pattern in the western U.S. is melding with more summer-like tropical activity in the eastern Pacific to create interesting conditions across the Southwest.  In the big picture, an upper low is forecast to strengthen as it drops south along the west coast to near southern CA by this weekend, inducing an initially dry southwest flow that is expected to transition to a moist southerly flow by the end of the work week.  This flow is expected to tap moisture from the remnants of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity.  Initial impacts will be predominant breezy/windy and dry conditions across the area through WED, followed by a rapid increase in cloud cover on THU and then a more consistently moist, cool, and cloudy trend from FRI through early next week.  Significant rainfall amounts are most likely over and N/NE of higher terrain areas, favoring the NE half of AZ and SW half of NM.  Rainfall amounts elsewhere remain uncertain, but a distinctly more moist & cooler environment is a near certainty.

Fuels/Fire Potential

Continued Low to locally Moderate risk for significant fire activity through WED/THU....then a general overall reduction in fire potential is expected. Changeable & seasonally cool/moist weather has tempered overall area fire potential until just recently...and it now looks like another moisture event may mitigate fire potential over the upcoming weekend.  In the meantime, fire potential will be elevated due to several days of warm, dry, breezy weather following some recent lightning and with also increased human recreational activity. This will be especially dependent on local fine fuels fuels conditions.  A major area-wide downturn in fire potential is expected over through the weekend.


Southwest Anticipated Resource Demand (SWARD) 
  On the SWARD, you'll find:
      - Anticipated Demand for Resources within the Southwest Area
      - Anticipated Demand for OUT-OF-AREA Type 1 Crews and IMT's
      - Anticipated Demand for SWA Resources to OUT-OF-AREA assignments.

Southwest Daily Resource Summary

Printable Version of 7-Day Product

Forecasters: Maxwell 6/2/2015 1011 MDT