Legend
Fuel Dryness
| Moist - Little or no risk for large fires. | |
| Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event. | |
| Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event. | |
| Data Unavailable. |
High Risk Events
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Windy, Dry and Unstable - Sustained winds of 20 mph or greater or consistent gusts to 35 mph or greater, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+. |
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Hot, Dry and Unstable - Temperatures much above typical peak fire season maximums, with humidity 15% or less and Haines Index of 5+. |
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Lightning - LAL's of 3 or higher with humidity less than 20% and a Haines Index of 5+, preceded by several days of hot temperatures and followed by steady or lowering humidity and/or increased winds. |
Missing Stations
- Tonto Basin
Southwest Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential
Issued: Friday, May 24, 2013 Parameters:
| Predictive Service Area |
Thu
May 23 |
Fri
May 24 |
Sat
May 25 |
Sun
May 26 |
Mon
May 27 |
Tue
May 28 |
Wed
May 29 |
Thu
May 30 |
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| SW01 - Northwest AZ |
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| SW02 - West-Central AZ |
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| SW03 - Southwest AZ | ||||||||
| SW04 - Four Corners Area |
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| SW05 - Western Mogollon Rim |
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| SW06N - Central AZ/PHX Metro |
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| SW06S - Southeast AZ |
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| SW07 - Northwest NM Mtns. |
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| SW08 - White Mtns./Gila Region |
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| SW09 - Central/SW NM |
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| SW10 - Sangre de Cristo Mtns. |
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| SW11 - CNTRL NM Highlands |
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| SW12 - South-Central NM Mtns. |
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| SW13 - NE NM-TX Panhandle | ||||||||
| SW14N - SE NM / WCNTRL TX | ||||||||
| SW14S - Southwest TX |
Weather
Breezy to windy, dry & unstable conditions to advance slowly east across the region through the holiday weekend...preceded by lightning potential near/east of the NM central mountain chain. Regional critical fire weather pattern in place, with a near stationary upper low over the NW quadrant of the country and an amplifying ridge over TX leading to a sustained moderate-strong SW flow through the weekend. A piece of the larger upper low is expected to break off and move east across the Southwest in the MON/TUE time frame. This portends a sustained southwesterly flow that will subject mainly the western half of the area to periods of critically windy/dry/unstable conditions through the 1st part of the holiday weekend before the focus shifts eastward SUN/MON. Areas east of the NM central mountain chain will see dryline storm activity, increased RH and some rainfall...with the potential for drier lightning today>SAT along the central mtn chain which will be followed by increased, drying winds later in the weekend. Windy/breezy and drier conditions look to shift eastward across the area SUN/MON/TUE...with cooling and less severe conditions west....and and overall cooling/moisten trend towards the middle of next week.
Fuels/Fire Potential
Continued Moderate/High risk for significant fire activity coincident with widespread areas of critical wind/low RH/Haines 5+ conditions and more more localized lightning impacts through the holiday lightning. A typical, but unusually lenghty, alignment of wind/dryness/instability is expected to create on and off High Risk conditions across the western half of the region through the first half of the holiday weekend...conditions which will then translate eastward SUN/MON. This situation will be further complicated by lightning potential along the NM central mountain chain creating High Risk conditions for new ignitions today>SAT....when considering the pre-existing drought conditions and the drying winds expected to follow SUN>TUE.
Resources
Southwest Daily Resource Summary
Southwest Anticipated Resource Demand (SWARD)
On the SWARD, you'll find:
- Anticipated Demand for Resources within the Southwest Area
- Anticipated Demand for OUT-OF-AREA Type 1 Crews and IMT's
- Anticipated Demand for SWA Resources to OUT-OF-AREA assignments.
Printable Version of 7-Day Product
Forecasters: Maxwell 5/24/2013 1003 MDT
