|Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.|
|Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.|
|Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.|
High Risk Events
|Wind - strong winds combined with low RH (below 15%)|
|Dry lightning or any lightning during very hot, dry weather.|
Western Great Basin Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential
Issued: Monday, Sep 15, 2014 Parameters:
|Predictive Service Area||
|WB01 - Northwest|
|WB02 - Northern Mtns.|
|WB03 - Sierra Front|
|WB04 - West Central Mtns.|
|WB05 - Central Mountains|
|WB06 - Humboldt Basin|
|WB07 - Northeast|
|WB08 - West Desert|
|WB09 - East Central Mtns.|
|WB10 - Southeast Desert|
|WB11 - Southern Mtns.|
|WB12 - Southeast Mtns.|
|WB13 - East Desert|
Dry weather through early week in most western/northern areas with above normal temperatures. Thunderstorms start returning to some areas today through this week with deeper moisture by the middle of the week, along with increasing winds.
High pressure stretching from the southwest to off the CA coast will allow for continued low RH across the WGB today, along with warm temperatures. This will give fuels ample time to continue drying out over western/northern areas. Temperatures through early in the week will be 5-10 degrees above normal, especially over western/northern areas. Highs through early next week will reach the 80s to low 90s in the lower elevations over northern and western NV and in the mid-90s to low 100s over southern NV.
Low pressure off the northern CA coast will move north today with a slight increase in winds. Some instability may develop along parts of the Sierra Front into far western NV on Monday for isolated thunderstorms, although instability is fairly weak with limited mid-upper level moisture. Isolated storms may develop over central/eastern NV through Tuesday. Any storms before Wednesday will be a mix of wet/dry and may increase IA.
Hurricane Odile will move north over the Baja Peninsula through this week. This will bring more significant wetting rains and thunderstorms to at least the eastern half of NV and a possible increased threat of lightning over western/northern areas Wednesday/Thursday depending on the track. Another low will also approach the CA coast Wednesday and would allow for stronger winds over western/northern NV and allow any thunderstorms in those areas to move quickly, although surface RH will be increasing. The strongest winds look to occur on Wednesday.These concerns will be monitored after warm/dry weather dries out fuels in the west/north.
Wet weather over the eastern half of NV will continue from mid-late week, along with temperatures dropping 10-12 degrees later this week with a return to near to below normal temperatures. Drier weather by the weekend.
SEE OUR MULTIMEDIA FIRE WEATHER BRIEFING AT: http://gacc.nifc.gov/wgbc/predictive/outlooks/briefing/briefing.html
SEE OUR DAY1 / DAY2 HEAT INDEX:
Fuels remain dry over the western half of the WGB through early this week, with LOW-MODERATE fire potential, especially on any breezy or windy days or with any return of lightning. Significant fire potential will still remain LOW over eastern/southern NV through next week as moisture increases again in some areas later next week. Although due to increasing thunderstorm chances this week, IA will likely increase somewhat.
Severe to Exceptional Drought Continues Across the WGB: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?west
The main areas of concern will be in the mid-higher elevations where fuel moisture is return to critical low levels through next week in some areas and are stricken by long term drought. Also as lower elevations dry out, there could be a concern if ignitions occur in the right areas where there is some grass to carry fire as winds increase.
ERCs will continue increasing through early this week with decreasing live/dead fuel moisture due to drier weather over the western half of the WGB. ERCs have increased to above normal over many western and northern areas of the WGB, and will reach or exceed the 80th percentile over the western half of the WGB into early this week. 100-hr fuel moisture has dropped to well below normal in some western/northern areas and will continue decreasing through early this week.
Drought stress is still ongoing across the landscape making fuels more critical in many areas, especially in Pinyon-Juniper and timber areas and over western and northern areas. Therefore, once fuels dry out, the mid-higher elevation fuels are still the highest concern.
SEE THE NATIONAL FIRE POTENTIAL MAP AT: http://psgeodata.fs.fed.us/staticmap.html
SEE A 7-DAY PROJECTION OF ERC, F100 AND F1000:
Western Great Basin Area Preparedness Level is 1: LIGHT IA through this week. Anticipate LOW demand for outside of area resources through this week.
National Preparedness Level is 2: LOW demand for resources in support of other geographic areas.
SEE THE MORNING REPORT AT:
Forecasters: McGuire 9/15/2014 0824 MDT