|Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.|
|Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.|
|Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.|
High Risk Events
|Wind - strong winds combined with low RH (below 15%)|
|Dry lightning or any lightning during very hot, dry weather.|
Western Great Basin Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential
Issued: Monday, Sep 1, 2014 Parameters:
|Predictive Service Area||
|WB01 - Northwest|
|WB02 - Northern Mtns.|
|WB03 - Sierra Front|
|WB04 - West Central Mtns.|
|WB05 - Central Mountains|
|WB06 - Humboldt Basin|
|WB07 - Northeast|
|WB08 - West Desert|
|WB09 - East Central Mtns.|
|WB10 - Southeast Desert|
|WB11 - Southern Mtns.|
|WB12 - Southeast Mtns.|
|WB13 - East Desert|
Dry weather through next weekend in most areas with temperatures fluctuating just above/below normal through the week.
The high pressure ridge off the CA coast and over the southwest U.S.tries to build north through Tuesday bringing temperatures several degrees above normal again Monday/Tuesday.
Another trough moves into the Pac NW Tuesday/Wednesday with a return to breezy SW winds in all areas and temperatures near normal. Breezy winds continue through the end of the week over southern/eastern NV. Isolated thunderstorms may return as early as the late next week for a day or two before the trough in the northwest pushes any moisture east, but confidence in thunderstorms is low. For the most part dry weather is expected through next weekend.
SEE OUR MULTIMEDIA FIRE WEATHER BRIEFING AT: http://gacc.nifc.gov/wgbc/predictive/outlooks/briefing/briefing.html
SEE OUR DAY1 / DAY2 HEAT INDEX:
Fuels will be drying out in all areas of the WGB through next weekend due to drier weather, with a return to LOW-MODERATE fire potential in some areas of the western/north central WGB again through the week, especially on any breezy days. Fire potential will still remain generally LOW over eastern/southern NV through the week.
Severe to Exceptional Drought Continues Across the WGB: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?west
The main areas of concern will be in the mid-higher elevations where fuel moisture may return to critical low levels through next week in some areas and are stricken by long term drought. Also as lower elevations dry out, there could be a concern if ignitions occur in the right areas where there is some grass to carry fire as winds increase.
ERCs will gradually increase through this week with decreasing live/dead fuel moisture due to drier weather. ERCs are currently below normal, but will likely increase to above normal in some areas this week, especially in the west/central/north, and may even reach the 80th percentile. 100-hr fuel moisture has dropped to below normal over parts of central/southern NV and will continue decreasing in all areas.
Drought stress is still ongoing across the landscape making fuels more critical in many areas, especially in Pinyon-Juniper and timber areas and over western and northern areas. Therefore, once fuels dry out, the mid-higher elevation fuels are still the highest concern.
SEE THE NATIONAL FIRE POTENTIAL MAP AT: http://psgeodata.fs.fed.us/staticmap.html
SEE A 7-DAY PROJECTION OF ERC, F100 AND F1000:
Western Great Basin Area Preparedness Level is 1: LIGHT IA through this week. Anticipate LOW demand for outside of area resources through this week.
National Preparedness Level is 2: LOW demand for resources in support of other geographic areas.
SEE THE MORNING REPORT AT:
Forecasters: McGuire 9/1/2014 0900 MDT