Western Great Basin Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Tuesday, May 15, 2012 Parameters: None ERC F100 F1000 IC Tmax Tmin RHmin F10 BI

Predictive Service Area	Mon May 14	Tue May 15	Wed May 16	Thu May 17	Fri May 18	Sat May 19	Sun May 20	Mon May 21
WB01 - Northwest
WB02 - Northern Mtns.
WB03 - Sierra Front
WB04 - West Central Mtns.
WB05 - Central Mountains
WB06 - Humboldt Basin
WB07 - Northeast
WB08 - West Desert
WB09 - East Central Mtns.
WB10 - Southeast Desert
WB11 - Southern Mtns.
WB12 - Southeast Mtns.
WB13 - East Desert

Weather

Red Flag Warning Tuesday for eastern Nevada FWZ 455-461 for gusty winda and low RH.  Isolated thunderstorm chances over the northern half of Nevada through Thursday with stronger winds again on Thursday. 

Low pressure has now weakened and moved over central Nevada.  A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are still possible over the northern half of Nevada today near and north/west of this low, but coverage will remain low.  Strong outflow gusts 50+ mph are again likely near storms today.  Another weak disturbance will move into Nevada Wednesday with another chance of thunderstorms over the northern half of the state.  A deeper trough approaches Nevada on Thursday with a continued risk of thunderstorms over northern Nevada, however these storms are expected to be wetter, especially north of Interstate 80.  Due to very dry and warm conditions over the last 10 days drying out fuels and raising ERCs, any thunderstorms should still be monitored.  Drier weather later in the day on Friday through early next week.

Winds ahead of the low will remain strong today over eastern Nevada along with continued RH dropping to 4-8%, after a night of poor RH recoveries.  South winds 15-25 mph with gusts 35-45 mph are expected in most areas with isolated higher gusts.  This will keep fire potential MODERATE-HIGH across eastern Nevada today especially in the dead carryover fuels.  Winds decrease Wednesday over eastern Nevada but will begin to increase over western/northwest Nevada with wind gusts 30-35 mph ahead of another trough. Winds increase further across the state on Thursday with southwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts 30-45 mph.  Winds may gust above 45 mph at times over southern Nevada Friday evening. RH will drop below 10% again over the southern half of Nevada on Thursday, and 10-15% over the rest of the state.

High pressure will build into Nevada this weekend bringing a return to well above normal temperatures, dry conditions and lighter winds.  Temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal will continue through Thursday with highs cooling to near normal over northern Nevada Friday.  Highs will reach the mid 80s over northern Nevada and the upper 90s over southern Nevada.  RH will drop to 5-10% during the day across the state, with poor to fair overnight RH recoveries 15-20% through this week over the southern half of Nevada and moderate recoveries further north.

SEE OUR MULTIMEDIA FIRE WEATHER BRIEFING AT:

http://gacc.nifc.gov/wgbc/predictive/briefing/briefing.html

SEE OUR DAY1 / DAY2 HEAT INDEX:

http://gacc.nifc.gov/wgbc/predictive/outlooks/outlook.htm

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Fuels/Fire Potential

Significant fire potential will be to MODERATE-HIGH over eastern Nevada today due to gusty winds and low RH,  especially in dead carryover fuels.  Very dry and warm conditions have occurred over Nevada the last week, which has significantly dried out fuels.  MODERATE-HIGH fire potential may extend into Wednesday and Thursday due to the continued potential for thunderstorms and a return to stronger winds on Thursday across the state..

ERCs are well above normal across Nevada and will continue increasing through this week due to warm and dry weather. Some areas of western Nevada have seen ERCs reach maximum values since 1990 for mid-April.

SEE THE NATIONAL FIRE POTENTIAL MAP AT:  http://psgeodata.fs.fed.us/staticmap.html

SEE A 7-DAY PROJECTION OF ERC, F100 AND F1000: http://gacc.nifc.gov/wgbc/predictive/outlooks/Fire_Indicies.html

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Resources

Western Great Basin Area Preparedness Level is 2:  Initial attack will have moderate success today and may be strained by Thursday. Anticipate MODERATE demand for outside of area resources through this week due to potential for dry/windy conditions and thunderstorms. 

National Preparedness Level is 1: LOW demand for resources in support of other geographic areas.

SEE THE MORNING REPORT AT: http://gacc.nifc.gov/wgbc/predictive/intelligence/morningreport.pdf

Forecasters: McGuire 5/15/2012 1717 MDT