Fuel Dryness

Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events

Windy and Dry

Missing Stations

  • Big Sur
  • Devore
  • Ozena
  • Big Pine Flat
  • Converse
  • Squaw Lake
  • Squaw Lake
  • Oak Creek

California - South Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Thursday, Oct 30, 2014 Parameters:

Predictive Service Area Wed
Oct 29
Oct 30
Oct 31
Nov 1
Nov 2
Nov 3
Nov 4
Nov 5
SC01 - Eastern Sierra
SC02 - Central Sierra
SC03 - Southern Sierra
SC04 - Sierra Foothills
SC05 - Central Valley
SC06 - Central Coast Interior
SC07 - Central Coast
SC08 - South Coast
SC09 - Western Mountains
SC10 - Eastern Mountains
SC11 - Southern Mountains
SC12 - Lower Deserts
SC13 - Eastern Deserts
SC14 - Central Mojave
SC15 - Upper Deserts
SC16 - Northern Deserts

The first significant storm of the season will reach the area Friday and Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation to the district.  Today, high clouds will increase across the state in advance of the system, which will result in slightly cooler afternoon temperatures.  Highs today will be in the lower to mid 80s in the valleys with 70s common in the mountains below 5,000 feet.  Winds will remain light.  Friday morning, the storm is expected to swing into Northern California and rain should reach the central coast and northern portions of the Sierras by noon.  The main band of rain will pass through Central California during the afternoon Friday before heading into Southern California by midnight.  Moderate rainfall rates will be possible near the higher terrain as this will be a fairly dynamic system with plenty of cold air aloft.  Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across the San Joaquin Valley Friday night.  The rainfall should taper off Saturday morning, but scattered upslope showers will continue on the north aspects of the higher terrain throughout the day.  In all, expect 0.75” – 1.00” of precipitation along the central coast and in the Sierras from Fresno County northward.  Across the Southern Sierras into Southern California, storm total precipitation will likely range from 0.25” – 0.50” with a tenth or less for the deserts.  Snow levels will fall to 5,000 feet by Saturday morning with 6-10” accumulation above 7,000 feet in the Sierras to 2-4” in the mountains of Southern California.  High temperatures will be well below normal by Saturday with highs in the 60s at lower elevations.  Strong south winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph will be possible in the Owens Valley and deserts on Friday which will switch to the west Saturday.  The storm will be out of the area by Sunday with sunny and warmer weather returning by Monday.  Some light offshore flow may develop Monday and Tuesday, leading to drier and much warmer temperatures early next week.

Fuels/Fire Potential

Windy weather Friday may allow any new start in the desert or nearby areas to grow rapidly with wind driven fire behavior in the finer fuels.  By Saturday, RH and cloud cover will be high enough to preclude fire activity.  Expect a very low large fire potential over the weekend, but early next week, strong drying conditions are expected as sunny skies and weak offshore flow return.  The rainfall over Central California should be sufficient to keep fire potential low next week, but across Southern California, some IA may be possible by next Tuesday.  Long range models indicate the warm weather will last for several days and the affects of the upcoming storm may be negated over many areas by next weekend in terms of fuel moisture. 


CWCG Preparedness Level 3, MACS Mode 2


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Forecasters: RK 10/30/2014 0753 MDT