GACC Map

Legend

Fuel Dryness


Moist - Little or no risk for large fires.
Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Very dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.
Data Unavailable.

High Risk Events


Windy and Dry
Lightning

Missing Stations

  • Devore

California - South Area 7 Day
Significant Fire Potential

Issued: Thursday, Jul 24, 2014 Parameters:


Predictive Service Area Wed
Jul 23
Thu
Jul 24
Fri
Jul 25
Sat
Jul 26
Sun
Jul 27
Mon
Jul 28
Tue
Jul 29
Wed
Jul 30
SC01 - Eastern Sierra
SC02 - Central Sierra
SC03 - Southern Sierra
SC04 - Sierra Foothills
SC05 - Central Valley
SC06 - Central Coast Interior
SC07 - Central Coast
SC08 - South Coast
SC09 - Western Mountains
SC10 - Eastern Mountains
SC11 - Southern Mountains
SC12 - Lower Deserts
SC13 - Eastern Deserts
SC14 - Central Mojave
SC15 - Upper Deserts
SC16 - Northern Deserts

Weather

***Isolated storms possible by the weekend.  Hot through the end of next week***

A strong and largely stationary ridge of high pressure over the southern Rockies will maintain hot weather through the end of the month.  Today may be the hottest day of the period over much of Southern California due to a lack of clouds and an absent marine layer.  Expect afternoon temperatures to reach 103-106 in the warmest valley and foothill locations with 90s in the mountains below 5,000 feet.  The low deserts will be close to 120.  Last night, some wind gusts to 30-35 mph occurred in the highest elevations of the Santa Ynez Range and expect some gusts up to 20 mph to continue through noon above 2,000 feet in Santa Barbara County.  Otherwise, winds are expected to be light today.  Tonight, localized north winds of 10-20 mph can be expected in Santa Barbara County once again.  Temperatures Friday may be a couple of degrees cooler, especially at the coast where weak onshore flow may develop in the afternoon. Moisture will begin to enter the southern deserts and the far southern part of the state and some cumulus clouds and one or two thunderstorms may be possible in far southern San Diego County toward evening.  This weekend, isolated storms will be possible across the Cleveland National Forest into the deserts with one or two storms possible each afternoon in the San Bernardino and eastern Angeles National Forests.  Isolated storms may spread northward into the Sierras by next Sunday and Monday.  Unlike the last monsoonal surge, moisture will be extremely limited and lightning discharges will likely be under a 100 per day.  However, there may be one or two dry strikes each afternoon as the lower atmosphere will be quite dry through the period.   Temperatures will remain around 10 degrees above average this weekend through the end of next week.

Fuels/Fire Potential
Large fire potential will be elevated through the period due to the very warm temperatures expected.  High afternoon BI values can be expected, resulting in rapid rates of spread through all fuel types even in the absence of wind.  The thunderstorms over the weekend will be very few in number, but will have a higher likelihood of generating a new start as fuels will be much more receptive to ignition in the hot, dry weather.  Last weekend's storms produced some wetting rains, but any rainfall with the storms during the next few days will be very light.  In addition, the storms may produce gusty, erratic winds and a few dry strikes.  Expect moderate IA today and Friday due to the hot temperatures, but IA and resource demand may be higher over the weekend as thunderstorms return to the area. 

Resources

CWCG Preparedness Level 2, MACS Mode 2

 

For more information about this product, please go to:

http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/outlooks/7-Day_Documentation.pdf

Forecasters: RK 7/24/2014 0801 MDT